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Place your bets
Have you ever been to the track to watch a horserace? I grew up around these majestic animals. I’ve experienced the thrill of riding them at full speed and the pain of being thrown off the back of one and hearing my bones crunch as I came back to earth with a painful thud. For many investors in Bitcoin, it is a similar feeling at the moment.
I’ve been to many race tracks, from small provincial meets where everyone knew each other, to grand events like the Melbourn cup where people dress up, get drunk and bet on horses because they have a fun name.
Bitcoin is in a race, two in fact. The first is a race to be properly understood by a public who are confused by the 5000 other projects in the Crypto space, and the second is the main the event, the big race. That race will see Bitcoin line up against the other options we have to solve the looming global debt crisis. I’ve written extensively on this topic and encourage you to learn more on Bitcoins ability to solve this problem.
To qualify for the main race, Bitcoin must first win its current battle against the multitude of other projects in the Crypto space. Crypto also needs to clean up its act and fast. With news of yet another disaster at an exchange, with the owner dying and not leaving access to the cold storage, more funds look to be lost. This is laughable.
Fortunately, we are very close to better regulation in the world of Crypto exchanges. This will provide better liquidity and price discovery for Bitcoin. This can’t come soon enough. Betting on Bitcoin on some of these exchanges makes even of the most basic of provincial racetracks I’ve been to look far better organised.
Bitcoin is the best horse and a clear favourite, but it is stuck at what is similar to small provincial racetracks. I’ve been to many of these racetracks as I grew up watching the many racehorses we had. The small provincial meets had more sophistication from a betting point of view than many of our existing Crypto exchanges. Getting quality information was easier. People were familiar with the real form of the horses, knew the trainers, owners, jockeys or someone close to these groups. The fields that lined up to battle it out were smaller. Bad gamblers were present, but you certainly had the feeling that most people had done their homework and knew what they were betting on. Bitcoin needs to win the provincial race meet this year. I firmly believe it will.
The dark horse
To use another analogy from the horse racing world, we have seen the dark horse leap out of the stalls first and lead the pack. It bolted away but was reeled in by a huge chasing pack of 5000 overhyped nags. The crowd roared waving their tickets in the air as their bets looked unstoppable, unbeatable even. They supposedly had the latest in tech on their side. The race is now in the back straight. It is about halfway through and the dark horse, after slipping dramatically back, looks like it will again lead the pack to a clear win. The pack, ridden by wide-eyed jockeys, literally whippy the shit out of their projects is running out of energy. The punters didn’t read the form book. If they had they would have seen that the dark horse has had 10 times the experience of their nags and when it has looked dead and buried, it has stormed back out of nowhere. It is not a flashy horse, it is not wearing bright colours and showing up one youtube channels with laughable pundits telling you how great it is.
Simply put, it has the best trainers, the best team helping it get ready for the big race. The real race.
The odds on the dark horse
Calculating the odds of this race right now is a difficult thing to do. Like horse racing, much of the action is rigged. Jockeys are paid off, horses are drugged and it’s hard to know who to listen to.
Horses carry their young longer than humans carry babies, 11 months in total. I suspect some champion projects are still in the womb and just like champion racehorses, we will see them in action in 2 to 3 years time after their birth. The dark horse that is Bitcoin, however, is with us now and for me, it is a great bet. I’m not quite ready to place my bet just yet, but the odds might just become too attractive to turn away from in the near future. Its form book is under close scrutiny and I’m talking to the right people in its camp to see how it has been training. What I’m hearing is that, as sad as it sounds, most of its competition is being turned into dog food and glue. Many of the people ‘in the know’ think that in a years time the race field will only have a handful of horses lining up to battle it out for the punters. There is also the possibility of a one-horse race with people betting on how fast the dark horse that is Bitcoin can run.
The crowd will be smaller for a while, but when people realise they are watching a thoroughbred in action the stakes will rise dramatically. The crowd will swell again and the action will heat up to levels never seen before! It may seem crazy to call Bitcoin the dark horse. The reality is, that we need the ICO hype to die, and people waking up to how good of a thoroughbred Bitcoin is. Bitcoin is the clear winner in Crypto but we want to see it compete as a monetary system. The days of Bitcoin competing at provincial race meets are over. Let’s line it up at the Grand national, the Kentucky Derby and see how it performs.
My money is on the dark horse, always has been always will be. Go Bitcoin go!