This is NOT a click bait headline. I follow a number of traders and while countless hours of tech analysis can get very boring I recently watched an excellent show with Tyler Jenks. I encourage you to watch the full video. The link is at the end of this article. For those of you just looking for the snap shot reason he says Bitcoin can go to 100 Million but we are going to $1000 first, here it is. Jenks has 40 plus years of experience managing large funds as a portfolio manager. He has developed a technical analysis technique called hyper wave. Jenks has been very accurate over the last year with his predictions of the Bitcoin price. For this reason I have taken his analysis seriously.
Bitcoin to go to $1000?
First the bad news. Jenks, through the use of his hyper wave charting technique, has accurately predicted the price of Bitcoin especially through the later part of 2018. The bad news is he sees the price of Bitcoin going to $1000 to complete the last phase of its hyper wave. He states that seeing the price chart of Bitcoin, and his belief that it is in a hyper wave, has brought him out of retirement to study what is happening. Should he have kept his slippers up and relaxed or is he charging into Bitcoin research for a good reason?
In short a hyper wave consists of 7 stages and Jenks states we are in stage 7. This is that horrible downward blue line. Jenks has over 375 other hyper wave charts which his team have found over the last 15 years from every conceivable industry. Bitcoins chart is very similar to these adding credence to the suggestion Bitcoin may well be in a hyper wave.
The really bad news!
Jenks also states we are in the biggest hyper wave of all and that is the credit bubble we have created that began in 1944. In short Jenks thinks we are on the precipice of global economic melt down as we have 220 Trillion in Global debt and all of the Planets currencies combined only come to 80 Trillion. In other words even if total M1 or all the currency out there was applied to debt we would not come close to covering it. He says we have five ways to solve the problem. Bitcoin being one of them. I wont go into detail on all five but here are the solutions he says can save us all.
- Bitcoin. In this scenario Bitcoin would become the asset to service our current debt. To cover the current debt Bitcoin would go to 100 000 000. Bitcoin supply multiplied by current debt gives us this figure. More on this in the conclusion.
- A return to the gold standard. This is likely to be an option but even the total value of gold is nowhere near the total value of debt. Might be time to buy some gold people.
- Grow out of it economically, extremely unlikely.
- Debt defaults or debt forgiveness. A very ugly solution. A black swan event, oh god do you we laready have one on the way.
- A combination of a gold and currency standard. China is looking closely at this as they have a huge debt problem, much bigger than that of the USA.
Is Bitcoin the solution to the Global debt crisis
With the ability for interest rates to be reduced to spur growth almost gone, Jenks sees Bitcoin as the best solution to our debt crisis. The issue as he sees it, is timing. Both regulators and buyers just not understanding it enough, the difficulty in learning about it and buying it may render it to late for it to be our savior. He thinks if the global economy can hang in there for 1-3 years and Bitcoin attains more adoption then it will be the clear winner of the five possible solutions. I have taken the time to understand many of Bitcoins use cases but this surely is right at the top.
Summary
Jenks bases his $1000 bitcoin on his use of his hyper wave charting. He is very bullish on Bitcoin after this price point in large part due to its ability to solve the global debt crisis. Timing is the big challenge as he sees it.
Is the institutional buying of of this cheap asset being driven by the impending explosion of our current debt filled system. People may question that large purchases are in fact taking place I personally think they are and have a good knowledge and exposure to this through colleagues in the OTC space. Please read this article on that topic.
One reason I am not sure we will see a $1000 Bitcoin is that as much as I hate to say it, I think the exchanges are manipulating the price and I question if they will let the price go to $1000. You can read more on that topic here. In additional research since writing this article I am even more convinced that collusion between exchanges is likely happening. Our resource section has more info and I recommend this website to check your exchange.
The liquid side chain enhances exchanges ability to effectively operate as a cartel. The liquid side chain has large benefits like giving exchanges shared liquidity and reducing congestion on the main Blockchain and I think it is a good tool but exchanges should not be afforded privacy in transacting, this goes against a main use case of a blockchain. I want to see more centralization and regulation around exchanges. Without getting off topic to much I have to say that some of the Hardforking team will hate me for saying this and most Bitcoin Maximalist will be disgusted. To clarify I love Bitcoin for being a decentralised protocol. The price speculation scene is not Bitcoin and therefor should be centralised and regulated. This will allow for much better price discovery and a fair playing field for the people who are in Bitcoin to speculate on its price and not put so much power in the hands of a handful of whales, exchange owners. More importantly it will allow very large institutions to purchase Bitcoin offer it to their customers and ultimately solve the global financial crisis that is staring us squarely in the eyes RIGHT NOW.
Tyler Jenks Bitcoin price predictions have been accurate albeit in a falling market in the main. I encourage you to watch the full video as is it one of the better ones I have seen. You will be no doubt be quiet shocked by the accuracy of the chart but I do question if too many unique variables namely exchange manipulation of price are present for this chart to be fully accurate in leg 7, its downward leg. Should Jenks be correct I do not think the price would sit at that level for more than a few hours and his analysis of what happens after a hyper wave is something I am researching in more detail. Early indications are that nothing conclusive can be ascertained about a markets likely behavior. Thanks for nothing then! Well maybe not. I think his ideas and knowledge of economics is worth your time so have a watch of this video.
